Ecuador GDP

Ecuador

Ecuador: GDP expands at slowest pace in over four years in Q4

March 30, 2015

In Q4 2014, GDP grew 3.5% over the same quarter of the previous year, which came in below the 3.7% increase registered in Q3 and represented the slowest pace of growth since Q2 2010. In the full year 2014, the economy expanded 3.8%, which was down from 2013’s 4.6% increase and marked the smallest expansion in four years.

Q4’s slowdown mainly reflected a deterioration of the external sector. Total consumption growth remained at Q3’s 4.6% in Q4. Private consumption growth inched down from Q3’s 4.5% to 4.3% in Q4, while growth in government spending accelerated from Q3’s 5.2% to 6.1% in Q4. Fixed investment growth also sped up, rising from 3.5% in Q3 to 4.0% in Q4.

Exports of goods and services moderated in Q4, falling from a 5.8% increase in Q3 to a 3.8% rise. Imports moderated from Q3’s 7.8% increase to a 7.0% expansion in Q4. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth worsened from minus 0.8 percentage points in Q3 to minus 1.1 percentage points in Q4, the worst result since Q3 2013.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, the economy expanded 0.5% over the previous quarter, coming in below Q3’s 1.4% increase.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 1.2% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, they expect GDP to grow 2.5%.


Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Ecuador GDP Chart


Ecuador GDP Q4 2014

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Ecuador Central Bank and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.


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