Dominican Republic Inflation October 2021

Dominican Republic

Dominican Republic: Inflation holds stable in October

November 12, 2021

Consumer prices increased 0.64% in October over the previous month, picking up from the 0.45% increase recorded in September. The higher reading largely owed itself to higher transport prices amid higher oil prices.

Inflation came in at 7.7% in October, unchanged from September’s reading. October's reading represented the lowest inflation rate since February, but was still well above the Central Bank’s 3.0%–5.0% target range. Annual average inflation rose to 7.8% in October (September: 7.5%). Lastly, core inflation ticked up to 6.3% in October, from the previous month's 6.1%.

Analysts at JPMorgan are more bullish about inflation prospects:

“Part of the slowdown in September came on the back of a drop in food and beverages, which had been under significant pressure in past months, something BCRD has referred to as a driver of above-trend inflation. However, the underlying trend continues to show signs of pressure, with core prices rising 0.51% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms […] While part of the rapid gains can be attributed to knock-on effects from high commodity prices, or supply disruptions, gains in other components such as restaurant and hotel prices are clearly linked to the economic recovery. Our forecast for headline inflation to reach 7.2% year-on-year by year-end seems on track, but core inflation pressures remain a source of upside from a more medium-term perspective.”

FocusEconomics panelists project inflation to end 2022 at 4.5%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2023 at 4.0%.


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