Denmark: Q4 contraction in GDP slightly higher than reported previously
March 31, 2014
In the last quarter of 2013, GDP contracted a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% over the previous quarter according to more detailed data released on 31 March. The figure was slightly down from the 0.5% contraction that had been previously estimated and contrasted the revised 0.3% expansion observed in the third quarter (previously estimated: 0.4% quarter-on-quarter). Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the economy grew 0.5%, which was down from the 0.6% expansion reported in the preliminary estimate. In the full year 2013, the economy grew 0.4% (2012: -0.4%).
Q4's result came primarily on the back of deteriorating total consumption, while external demand improved over the previous quarter. Private consumption fell 1.3% and government consumption rose 0.9%. Both the results met the preliminary estimates. Q4 fixed investment growth was revised from a 2.4% fall to a 2.9% decline (Q3: +1.9% quarter-on-quarter).
Exports of goods and services fell 0.3% in the fourth quarter, which was down from the 0.1% fall that had been estimated. In addition, imports fell 2.7% in Q4 (Q3: +3.2% qoq). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth rose from minus 0.9 percentage points in Q3 to plus 1.4 percentage points in Q4.
The Central Bank estimates growth of 1.5% in 2014 and 1.6% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists foresee economic growth of 1.4% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. For 2015, panelists expect an expansion of 1.8%.
Author: Dirina Mançellari, Senior Economist