Czech Republic GDP

Czech Republic

Czech Republic: Growth in Q3 above 4.0% for third consecutive quarter

November 27, 2015

In Q3, the economy expanded a seasonally- and calendar-adjusted 4.5% over the same quarter of last year, according to more complete data released by the Czech Statistical Office (CZO) on 27 November. The reading beat the flash estimate of 4.3%. In addition, Q3’s result marked the third consecutive quarter with growth above 4.0% and fell only marginally short of Q2’s over-seven-year high. Q3’s healthy result was mainly sustained by the domestic economy, and particularly strong public spending.

Private consumption rose 3.0% in annual terms in Q3, coming in marginally below the 3.1% increase observed in Q2, which marked the fastest expansion since Q2 2008. Conversely, government spending accelerated from a 2.3% rise in the second quarter to a 4.4% increase in the third quarter—the largest gain since Q4 2003. Total investment growth slowed from Q2’s 11.9% to 9.4% in Q3.

On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services quickened from a 7.1% increase in Q2 to an 8.2% rise in Q3. Imports also accelerated, rising from an 8.1% increase in the second quarter to a 9.1% rise in the third quarter. Consequently, the net contribution from the external sector advanced slightly from minus 0.4 percentage points in Q2 to minus 0.2 percentage points in Q3.

Compared to the previous period, GDP grew a seasonally-adjusted 0.5%, undershooting Q2’s 1.0% expansion.

The Czech National Bank expects the economy to expand 4.7% in 2015. For 2016, the Bank sees economic growth slowing to 2.8%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 4.0% in 2015, which is unchanged over the previous month’s projection. For 2016, the panel sees GDP increasing 2.7%, which is also unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Czech Republic GDP Chart

Czech Republic GDP Q3 2015 1

Note: Year-on-year changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP in %.
Source: Czech Statistical Office (CSO) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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