Colombia: Export growth cools in June
Merchandise exports rose 33.1% in annual terms in June, coming in below May’s 39.4% expansion. Looking at the details of the press release, June’s milder growth was chiefly driven by a weaker increase in fuel shipments, which represents the country’s key export. Moreover, growth in exports of agricultural products also moderated over the prior month.
Merchandise imports expanded at a record-high rate of 66.6% in June, above May’s 51.5%. That said, the reading largely benefitted from a low base effect. As a result, the merchandise trade deficit widened to USD 1.5 billion in June from USD 0.4 billion in June 2020. Accordingly, the trend deteriorated, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 12.5 billion deficit in June, compared to the USD 11.5 billion deficit tallied in May.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists project merchandise exports to expand 21.7% in 2021, and merchandise imports to grow 16.0%, resulting in a USD 7.4 billion trade deficit. In 2022 our panel estimates merchandise exports and imports to grow 8.5% and 7.0% respectively, with a trade deficit of USD 7.3 billion.