Colombia Inflation October 2016

Colombia

Colombia: Inflation falls again in October

November 5, 2016

In October, consumer prices dropped 0.06% over the previous month. The reading followed the 0.05% drop recorded in September, and contrasted market expectations of a 0.11% rise. According to Colombia’s National Statistics Institute (DANE), October’s print mainly reflected lower food prices. As El Niño winds down, food supply has increased, pushing down food prices in the last two months.

Inflation reached an all-time high of 9.0% in July and began to fall in August. It continued to fall from 7.3% in September to 6.5% in October, which is the lowest reading so far this year. However, inflation is still well above the Central Bank’s tolerance margin of plus/minus 1.0 percentage point around its 3.0% target.

In a press conference in South Africa, Central Bank Governor José Darío Uribe commented recently that inflation is likely to end the year close to or below 6.0%. Meanwhile, the Central Bank stated that it remains confident that inflation will converge to its inflation target in the coming months as food inflation is expected to continue slowing until the first quarter 2017.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect that inflation will close 2016 at 6.3%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel expects inflation to end the year at 4.2%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.


Author:, Economist

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Colombia Inflation October 2016

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of cons. price index in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE).


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