Colombia: Industrial production shrinks in October, albeit at a more moderate rate

Industrial production contracted 0.3% year-on-year in October, according to data released by Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) on 15 December. This represents a more moderate decrease than the revised 2.0% contraction in September (previously reported: -1.9% year-on-year). Growth in industrial production has been negative for six out of the past seven months, with July being the exception.

A breakdown of the sub-components showed an upturn in 19 of the total 39 industrial activities. The contraction in production was driven mainly by the sectors of pharmaceuticals, clothing and beverages. However, this decline was nearly single-handedly offset by the coking, oil refining and fuel blending sector, which expanded at a double-digit rate and helps explain why the contraction in October was limited.

Annual average industrial production growth was minus 0.2% in October, unchanged from the revised September figure (previous estimate: -0.1%). This represents the worst figure in nearly four years.

Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report expect industrial production to expand 2.3% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel expects industrial production to increase 2.9%.