Colombia GDP


Colombia: GDP growth decelerates in Q2

September 16, 2014

In Q2 2014, GDP grew 4.3% over the same quarter last year, coming in below the 6.5% increase registered in Q1. The expansion, which fell short of market expectations of a 4.6% increase, marked the lowest gain since Q1 last year.

Q2’s slowdown was mainly driven by a worse performance of the external sector and weaker domestic demand. Total consumption growth slowed to a 5.5% rise in Q2 (Q1: +5.9% year-on-year) due to a moderation in private consumption (Q1: +5.4% yoy; Q2: +5.2% yoy) and government spending (Q1: +8.1% yoy; Q2: +6.5% yoy). Fixed investment moderated from Q1’s 18.5% increase to an 11.1% rise in Q2.

Exports of goods and services swung to a sizable 8.6% contraction (Q1: +2.4% yoy), while imports rose 9.6% (Q1: +14.2% yoy). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth declined from minus 3.4 percentage points in Q1 to minus 4.2 percentage points in Q2.

A quarter-on-quarter comparison corroborates the slowdown suggested by annual figures. The economy contracted 0.1% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms, contrasting Q1’s notable 2.5% expansion.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists project that GDP will expand 4.9% this year, which is unchanged from the previous month’s estimate. In 2015, panelists expect GDP to also grow 4.7%.

Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Colombia GDP Chart

Colombia GDP Q214 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

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