Colombia: GDP accelerates in Q3 on robust investment
December 19, 2013
In Q3 2013, GDP grew 5.1% over the same quarter of the previous year, exceeding the 3.9% increase registered in Q2 (previously reported: +4.2% year-on-year). The expansion, which beat LatinFocus panelists' expectations of a 4.5% increase, marks the highest increase in GDP since Q1 2012.
The Q3 growth was driven by stronger domestic demand performance, whereas the external sector deteriorated. Total consumption growth fell to 4.3% in Q3 (Q2: +4.5% yoy), due to a deceleration in private consumption (Q2: +4.3% yoy; Q3: +4.0% yoy). Government spending rose 5.7% in Q3 (Q2: +5.4% yoy). Fixed investment registered an 11.0% expansion over the same period of the previous year in Q3, which overshot the 0.7% increase tallied in Q2.
Exports of goods and services rose a meager 1.9% (Q2: +7.8% yoy), while imports increased 2.9% in Q3 (Q2: +1.3% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth declined from plus 1.0 percentage points in Q2 to minus 0.5 percentage points in Q3.
A quarter-on-quarter comparison does not corroborate the acceleration suggested by annual figures. The economy expanded 1.1% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was below the 2.1% increase recorded in Q2.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expected GDP to grow 4.4% in 2014, which was down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month's projection. For 2015, the panel sees economic growth at 4.6%.