Colombia GDP


Colombia: GDP accelerates in Q1 on stronger domestic demand

June 19, 2014

In Q1 2014, GDP grew 6.4% over the same quarter of the previous year, exceeding the 5.3% increase registered in Q4 2013. The expansion, which beat LatinFocus panelists’ expectations of a 4.9% increase, marks the highest increase in GDP since Q4 2011.

Growth in Q1 was driven by stronger domestic demand performance, whereas the external sector deteriorated. Total consumption growth rose to 5.6% in Q1 (Q4: +4.7% year-on-year) due to an acceleration in private consumption (Q4: +4.4% yoy; Q1: +5.1% yoy) and government spending (Q4: +6.1% yoy, Q1: +7.5% yoy). Fixed investment registered a strong 14.6% expansion over the same period of the previous year in Q1, which nearly doubled the 7.7% increase tallied in Q4.

Exports of goods and services rose 6.9% (Q4: +8.5% yoy), while imports increased a stronger 16.3% in Q1 (Q4: +7.4% yoy). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth declined from minus 0.6 percentage points in Q4 to minus 3.2 percentage points in Q1.

A quarter-on-quarter comparison corroborates the acceleration suggested by annual figures. The economy expanded 2.3% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was up from the 0.9% increase recorded in Q4.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists project that GDP will expand 4.6% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. In 2015, panelists expect GDP to also grow 4.6%.

Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Colombia GDP Chart

Colombia GDP Q114

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

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