CIS Countries Economic Outlook
Regional growth is forecast to wane this year after rebounding in 2023. The fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war—international sanctions, diminished trade, high interest rates, labor shortages, drained investment flows and elevated inflation—will cap growth in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Further deterioration in the geopolitical backdrop is the main downside risk.
CIS Countries Inflation
Regional inflation remained stable at 7.1% in January. The result largely reflected steady inflation in Russia. In contrast, price pressures eased in most other regional economies, with only Belarus and Moldova registering higher inflation. The outlook remains volatile, with geopolitics, monetary policies, energy prices and currency movements key factors to watch.
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 4.7 | -4.8 | 9.2 | - | - |
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.0 | -5.3 | 7.7 | - | - |
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.9 | -2.0 | 5.2 | - | - |
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.9 | 6.0 | 5.1 | - | - |
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 1.2 | -3.9 | -0.4 | -2.7 | - |
Public Debt (% of GDP) | 18.7 | 25.4 | 22.0 | 24.1 | - |
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 5.0 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 14.1 | - |
CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 7.38 | 5.27 | 8.80 | 9.60 | 11.07 |
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 334 | 405 | 396 | 413 | 6,034 |
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.2 | 1.2 | 4.7 | 9.4 | - |
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 604 | 488 | 712 | 835 | - |
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 448 | 410 | 514 | 500 | - |
External Debt (% of GDP) | 40.2 | 44.7 | 37.8 | 29.6 | - |
International Reserves (USD bn) | 663 | 721 | 759 | 714 | - |
GDP per capita (USD) | 7,715 | 6,930 | 8,457 | 9,963 | - |
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.5 | -2.7 | 5.4 | -2.4 | - |