China: Trade data shows slowing exports and quickening imports in August

Exports rose 5.5% annually in August, coming in below July’s 7.2% increase but above market analysts’ expectations of a 5.0% expansion.

Meanwhile, imports rose 13.3% annually in August, which came in above both July’s 11.0% expansion and the 10.0% increase that market analysts had expected. This could point to resilient domestic demand in H2 for the Chinese economy.

The trade surplus narrowed from USD 46.7 billion in July to USD 42.0 billion in August (August 2016: USD 50.2 billion). The 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus decreased slightly from July’s USD 456 billion to USD 447 billion in August, which marked the lowest value since January 2015.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that growth in merchandise exports will reach 6.1% in 2017, while imports will increase 10.1%, driving the trade balance to a surplus of USD 477 billion. For 2018, the panel expects exports to expand 4.8% and imports to increase 3.4%, and the trade surplus to rise to USD 524 billion.