China Trade


China: Trade data improve in June

July 13, 2015

In June, exports rose 2.8% over the same month last year, which contrasted the 2.9% decline tallied in May. June’s expansion exceeded the 1.0% increase that market analysts had expected. Imports fell 6.1% annually in June, which was above the 17.6% decline tallied in May. Although the print was much better than the 15.5% drop that market analysts had expected, it represented the eighth consecutive contraction.

As a result, the trade surplus widened to USD 46.5 billion in June (May: USD 58.9 billion) from USD 31.9 billion in the same month last year. The 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus rose from USD 527 billion in May to USD 541 billion in June, which marks yet again an all-time high.

The government expects total merchandise trade to expand 6.0% this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that merchandise exports will grow 6.7% in 2015, while imports will expand 5.2%, thus driving the trade balance to record a surplus of USD 425 billion. For 2016, the panel expects exports to increase 5.6% and imports to rise 6.1%, while the trade surplus will widen to USD 451 billion.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Trade Chart

China Trade12m June 2015

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China and FocusEconomics calculations.

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