China Trade September 2017


China: Strong imports in September suggest healthy domestic growth

October 13, 2017

Exports rose 8.1% annually in September, coming in above August’s 5.5% increase but below market analysts’ expectations of an 8.8% gain.

Meanwhile, imports rose 18.7% annually in September, which came in above both August’s 13.3% expansion and the 13.5% increase that market analysts had expected. This points to resilient domestic demand for the Chinese economy.

The trade surplus narrowed from USD 40.9 billion in September 2016 to USD 28.5 billion in September 2017 (August 2017: USD 42.0 billion surplus). The 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus decreased from August’s USD 447 billion to USD 435 billion in September, which marked the lowest value since January 2015.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that growth in merchandise exports will reach 6.1% in 2017, while imports will increase 10.1%, driving the trade balance to a surplus of USD 477 billion. For 2018, the panel expects exports to expand 4.8% and imports to increase 3.4%, and the trade surplus to rise to USD 524 billion.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Trade Chart

China Trade12m September 2017

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China and FocusEconomics calculations.

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