China Trade November 2016


China: Exports rise for first time in eight months in November

December 8, 2016

Exports rose 0.1% annually in November, contrasting the 7.3% drop recorded in October. The print beat the 5.0% decline that market analysts had expected and represented the first positive reading since March 2016. Exports have benefited from the weakening of the yuan, which has lost more than 6.0% of its value since the start of the year.

Meanwhile, imports expanded at the fastest pace in over two years in November, rising 6.7% annually. The print contrasted the 1.4% decrease recorded in October and beat the 1.9% drop that market analysts had expected.

As a result of the strong rebound in imports, the trade surplus declined from USD 54.0 billion in November 2015 to USD 44.6 billion in November this year. The 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus decreased from October’s USD 573 billion to USD 563 billion in November, which marked the lowest value since August 2015.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that merchandise exports will expand 1.2% in 2017, while imports will rise 0.9%, driving the trade balance to a surplus of USD 589 billion. For 2018, the panel expects exports to expand 0.7% and imports to increase 1.5%, while the trade surplus will drop to USD 581 billion.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Trade Chart

China Trade12m November 2016

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China and FocusEconomics calculations.

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