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China: Exports in July tally largest drop in four months

August 9, 2015

In July, exports fell 8.3% over the same month last year, which contrasted the 2.8% increase tallied in June. July’s contraction exceeded the 0.3% decrease that market analysts had expected and represented a four-month low. Imports fell 8.1% annually in July, which was below the 6.1% decline tallied in June. July’s plunge was worse than the 6.6% drop that market analysts had expected.

As a result of the sharp drop in exports, the trade surplus narrowed to USD 43.0 billion in July (June: USD 46.5 billion) from USD 47.3 billion in the same month last year. The 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus fell from USD 541 billion in June to USD 537 billion in July.

The government expects total merchandise trade to expand 6.0% this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that merchandise exports will grow 2.6% in 2015, while imports will decrease 6.6%, thus driving the trade balance to a surplus of USD 573 billion. For 2016, the panel expects exports to increase 7.1% and imports to rise 6.3%, while the trade surplus will widen to USD 628 billion.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Trade Chart


China Trade12m July 2015

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China and FocusEconomics calculations.


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