China Trade September 2016


China: Exports drop at fastest pace in seven months in September

October 13, 2016

Exports fell 10.0% annually in September, contracting more than both the 2.8% drop recorded in August and the 3.3% decline the markets had expected. September’s fall represented the sharpest decline since February.

Meanwhile, imports declined 1.9% annually in September, contrasting both the 1.5% expansion recorded in August and the 0.6% increase that market analysts had expected.

As a result of the sharp drop in exports, the trade surplus declined from USD 59.6 billion in September 2015 to USD 42.0 billion in September this year. The 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus decreased from August’s USD 602 billion to USD 585 billion in September.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that merchandise exports will contract 6.4% in 2016, while imports will decrease 6.7%, driving the trade balance to a surplus of USD 600 billion. For 2017, the panel expects exports to increase 1.6% and imports to rise 1.1%, while the trade surplus will widen further to USD 617 billion.


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China Trade Chart

China Trade12m September 2016

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China and FocusEconomics calculations.

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