China Trade October 2016


China: Exports and imports contract again in October

November 8, 2016

Exports fell 7.3% annually in October, contracting less than the 10.0% drop recorded in September but exceeding the 6.0% decline the markets had expected. October’s fall represented the fifteenth contraction in the last sixteenth months.

Meanwhile, imports contracted 1.4% annually in October. The print followed the 1.9% decrease recorded in September and came in below the 1.0% decrease that market analysts had expected.

As a result of the sharp drop in exports and a moderate contraction in imports, the trade surplus declined from USD 61.3 billion in October 2015 to USD 49.1 billion in October this year. The 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus decreased from September’s USD 585 billion to USD 573 billion in October.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that merchandise exports will contract 5.7% in 2016, while imports will decline 6.7%, driving the trade balance to record a surplus of USD 591 billion. For 2017, the panel expects exports to expand 1.5% and imports to increase 1.2%, while the trade surplus will widen to USD 604 billion.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Trade Chart

China Trade12m October 2016

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China and FocusEconomics calculations.

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