China Trade June 2016


China: Contraction in exports deepen in June

July 13, 2016

Exports fell 4.8% annually in June, which followed the 4.1% drop recorded in May. June’s decline represented the steepest decline in four months and was broadly in line with the 5.0% contraction that market analysts had expected.

Meanwhile, imports decreased 8.4% annually in June, which followed the softer 0.4% contraction in May. June’s drop exceeded the 6.2% decline that market analysts had expected.

The trade surplus rose from USD 45.2 billion in June 2015 to USD 48.1 billion in June this year. The 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus increased from May’s 599 billion to USD 602 billion in June.

June’s data reflect weak global demand, which translates into lower overseas sales from China, while the continued drop in imports is the result of subdued Chinese demand and still low commodity prices.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that merchandise exports will contract 2.3% in 2016, while imports will decrease 4.5%, thus driving the trade balance to a surplus of USD 622 billion. For 2017, the panel expects exports to increase 2.1% and imports to rise 1.5%, while the trade surplus will widen further to USD 644 billion.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Trade Chart

China Trade12m June 2016 1

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China and FocusEconomics calculations.

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