China Trade Balance


China: Trade balance surplus soars in November

December 8, 2013

In November, exports jumped 12.7% over the same month last year, which exceeded the 5.6% increase seen in October and overshot market analysts' expectations of a 7.0% rise. According to analysts, the healthy expansion seen in November, which marks the strongest expansion in seven months, confirms a gradual recovery in advanced economies and a pick up in China's growth.

Imports expanded 5.3% in November, which marks a deceleration over the 7.6% rise tallied in October. The increase came in below market expectations of a 7.0% increase. Against this backdrop, the trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 33.8 billion, which was well above the USD 19.5 billion surplus recorded in in the same month last year. The November balance overshot market expectations of a USD 21.2 billion surplus and marks the largest surplus since January 2009. The 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus rose from USD 253 billion in October to USD 267 billion in November.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that merchandise exports will grow 8.0% in 2013 (USD 2.2 trillion), while the trade surplus will widen to USD 255 billion, which is up from USD 231 billion recorded in 2012. For 2014, the panel expects exports to increase 8.4% and the trade surplus to widen to USD 264 billion.


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