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China: Strong growth momentum in retail sales continues in November

December 12, 2015

In November, nominal retail sales grew 11.2% over the same month last year, which was slightly up from October’s 11.0% increase. The reading, which overshot the 11.1% increase market had expected, mostly reflected stronger sales of automobiles, clothes and textiles, and household appliances. Overall, retail sales benefited from purchases related to China’s Singles’ Day on 11 November, while a tax cut on small cars supported growth in automobiles sales.

Compared to the previous month, retail sales expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.86% in November (October: +0.81% month-on-month). Despite the stronger readings observed in the last few months, annual average growth in retail sales inched down, falling from October’s 10.8% to 10.7% in November. The print represented the lowest reading since April 2004.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect retail sales to increase 10.9% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2017, the panel foresees an expansion in retail sales of 10.7%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Retail November 2015

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales index and year-on-year variation in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures for January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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