China Retail

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China: Retail sales moderate in July

August 9, 2013

In July, nominal retail sales grew 13.2% over the same month last year, marking a deterioration over the 13.3% increase seen in June. The figure, which undershot market expectations of a 13.5% rise, put an end to the upward trend that had been in place since March. The deterioration was mainly due to weaker growth in sales of automobiles, household appliances and clothes.

Compared to the previous month, retail sales expanded a seasonally adjusted 1.23% in July (June: 1.26% month-on-month). Despite the monthly slowdown, the trend now points upwards; annual average growth in retail sales inched up slightly from 13.4% in June to 13.5% in July.

The government has set a growth target of 14.5% for retail sales. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect retail sales to rise 12.9% in 2013, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month's estimate. In 2014, the panel sees retail sales expanding 14.0%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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China Retail July 2013

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales index and year-on-year variation in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).


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