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China: Retail sales inch down in July

August 12, 2015

In July, nominal retail sales grew 10.5% over the same month last year, which was slightly down from June’s 10.6% increase. The reading, which undershot the 10.6% increase market had expected, mostly reflected a further decline in oil and oil-related products as well as weaker growth in sales for automobiles.

Compared to the previous month, retail sales expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.79% in July (June: +0.96% month-on-month). As a result of the disappointing figures observed at the outset of the year, annual average growth in retail sales fell from June’s 11.1% to 11.0% in July, which represented the lowest reading since May 2004.

The government set a retail sales growth target of 13.0% for this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect retail sales to increase 11.1% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel also foresees an expansion in retail sales of 11.1%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Retail July 2015

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales index and year-on-year variation in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures for January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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