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China: Retail sales continues to be the bright spot in October

November 11, 2015

In October, nominal retail sales grew 11.0% over the same month last year, which was slightly up from September’s 10.9% increase. The reading, which overshot the 10.9% increase market had expected, mostly reflected stronger sales of automobiles, food and beverages as well as of clothes.

Compared to the previous month, retail sales expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.83% in October (September: +0.87% month-on-month). As a result of the stronger readings observed in the last few months, annual average growth in retail sales stabilized this month, remaining at September’s 10.8%. The print, nevertheless, represented the lowest reading since April 2004.

The government set a retail sales growth target of 13.0% for this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel participants expect retail sales to increase 10.8% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel foresees an expansion in retail sales of 10.9%, which is unchanged from last month’s projection.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Retail October 2015 0

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales index and year-on-year variation in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures for January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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