China Retail November 2016


China: Retail sales accelerate strongly in November

December 14, 2016

In November, nominal retail sales grew 10.8% year-on-year, an eleven-month high, which was above the 10.0% increase in October. The print came in well above the 10.2% increase that market analysts had expected and was mainly the result of stronger sales for automobiles, oil and oil-related products, and household appliances.

Compared to the previous month, retail sales expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.97% in November (October: +0.75% month-on-month). Following an uninterrupted downward trajectory since 2012, the trend now seems to be towards stabilization. Annual average growth in retail sales stabilized at the previous month’s 10.4%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect retail sales to increase 10.1% in 2017, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2018, the panel foresees retail sales expanding 10.0%.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Retail Chart

China Retail November 2016

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales index and year-on-year variation in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures for January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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