China Retail


China: Growth in retail sales slows further in July

August 13, 2014

In July, nominal retail sales grew 12.2% over the same month last year, which was slightly below the 12.4% increase recorded in the previous month. The deceleration, which undershot market expectations of a 12.5% expansion, mainly reflected weaker growth in sales of food and beverages as well as of oil and oil-related products.

Compared to the previous month, retail sales expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.86% in July (June: +0.95% month-on-month). As a result of the weaker print observed in July, annual average growth in retail sales inched down from June’s 12.8% to 12.7%, which represented the lowest level since March 2006.

The government set a retail sales growth target of 14.5% for this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect retail sales to increase 13.1% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2015, the panel foresees a slightly higher expansion in retail sales of 13.2%.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Retail Chart

China Retail July 2014

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales index and year-on-year variation in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures for January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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