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China: Growth in retail sales inches down in June

July 16, 2014

In June, nominal retail sales grew 12.4% over the same month last year, which was a tad below the 12.5% increase recorded in the previous month. The deceleration, which undershot market expectations of a 12.5% expansion, mainly reflected weaker growth in sales of automobiles and of food and beverages.

Compared to the previous month, retail sales expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.96% in June (May: +1.15% month-on-month). Despite the weaker print observed in June, annual average growth in retail sales was stable at the previous month’s 12.8%, which represented the lowest level since March 2006.

The government set a retail sales growth target of 14.5% for this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect retail sales to increase 13.0% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2015, the panel foresees a slightly higher expansion in retail sales of 13.2%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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China Retail June 2014

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales index and year-on-year variation in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures for January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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