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China: Growth in retail sales improves slightly in November

December 12, 2014

In November, nominal retail sales grew 11.7% over the same month last year. The reading was slightly above the 11.5% increase recorded in the previous month and represented the strongest expansion in three months. The mild acceleration, which just barely overshot market expectations of an 11.5% expansion, reflected stronger growth in clothing and footwear, and household.

Compared to the previous month, retail sales expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.89% in November (October: +0.98% month-on-month). Despite the moderate pick-up in sales observed in November, annual average growth in retail sales inched down from October’s 12.3% to 12.1%, which represented the lowest reading since August 2004.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect retail sales to increase 12.3% in 2015, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel foresees a slightly higher expansion in retail sales of 12.4%, which is unchanged over the previous month’s forecast.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Retail November 2014

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales index and year-on-year variation in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures for January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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