China PMI


China: PMI tumbles to an over-three-year low in November

December 1, 2015

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in November fell from the previous month’s 49.8% to 49.6%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), which publish the index. The print just undershot the 49.8% that market analysts had expected and represented the lowest print since August 2015. The PMI is sitting below the 50%-threshold that separates contraction from expansion in the manufacturing sector.

November’s reading reflected a broad-based deterioration as all but one of the main components of the index retreated compared to the previous month. Inventories and employment are now at multi-year lows, while the supplier delivery time index was the sole subcomponent that was unchanged. Input prices—a reliable leading indicator for consumer prices—dipped to an 31-month low in November, highlighting the severe disinflationary pressures that the Chinese economy is facing. New export orders also fell in November, hitting the lowest level since 2011 and suggesting softening external demand.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China PMI Chart

China PMI November 2015

Note: Purchasing Managers’ Index. Readings above 50% indicate an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50% indicate a contraction.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP).

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