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China: New loans rebound in November while growth in M2 hits 17-month high

December 11, 2015

New yuan loans totaled CNY 709 billion (USD 110 billion) in November, which came in above the CNY 514 billion registered in the previous month. November’s reading undershot the CNY 735 billion the markets had expected. In the 12 months up to November, new yuan loans totaled CNY 11.8 trillion (October: CNY 12.0 trillion).

Total social financing—a broader measure of liquidity in the economy that includes loans, bonds and other non-traditional instruments—rebounded from CNY 477 billion in October to CNY 1.0 trillion in November. The reading was above the CNY 970 billion the markets had expected.

Meanwhile, annual growth in M2—the broadest measure of money supply in China—ticked up from 13.5% in October to 13.7% in November, beating market expectations of 13.4% and hitting a 17-month high.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect M2 to expand 11.5% in 2016, which is unchanged over the previous month’s forecast. In 2017, the panel sees M2 growth of 10.8%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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China Money November 2015

Note: New yuan loans in CNY billion and year-on-year variation of M2.
Source: People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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