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China: Credit indicators show mixed signals in September

October 14, 2013

New yuan loans totalled CNY 787 billion (USD 129 billion) in September, which was well above the CNY 711 billion recorded in the previous month. The print came in above market expectations of loans totalling CNY 675 billion. In the 12 months up to September, new yuan loans totalled CNY 8.8 trillion (August: CNY 8.6 trillion).

Total social financing - a broader measure of liquidity in the economy that includes loans, bonds and other non-traditional instruments - moderated from CNY 1.6 trillion in August to CNY 1.4 trillion in September. Meanwhile, in order to manage liquidity from the money market, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) continued to conduct its twice-a-week reverse repurchasing operations.

M2, the broadest measure of money supply in China, rose 14.2% over the same month last year in September (August: +14.7% year-on-year). The increase was in line with market expectations.

The government's M2 growth target for this year is 13.0%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect M2 to expand 13.9% in 2013, which is up 0.1 percentage points over the previous month's forecast. In 2014, the panel sees M2 growth at 13.0%, which is unchanged from last month's estimate.


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China Money Chart


China Money September 2013

Note: New yuan loans in CNY billion and year-on-year variation of M2.
Source: People's Bank of China (PBOC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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