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China: Credit data in September show better-than-expected dynamics

October 15, 2015

New Yuan loans totaled CNY 1.1 trillion (USD 165 billion) in September, which came in above the CNY 810 billion registered in the previous month. September’s reading also overshot the CNY 900 billion the markets had expected. In the 12 months up to September, new yuan loans totaled CNY 12.0 trillion (August: CNY 11.8 trillion), which marked yet another all-time high.

Total social financing—a broader measure of liquidity in the economy that includes loans, bonds and other non-traditional instruments—increased from CNY 1.1 trillion in August to CNY 1.3 trillion in September. The reading exceeded the CNY 1.2 trillion the market had expected.

Meanwhile, annual growth in M2—the broadest measure of money supply in China—ticked down from 13.3% in August to 13.1% in September, in line with market expectations.

The government targeted M2 growth at 12.0% for this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect M2 to expand 12.0% in 2015, which is unchanged over the previous month’s forecast. In 2016, the panel sees M2 growth of 11.6%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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China Money Chart


China Money September 2015

Note: New yuan loans in CNY billion and year-on-year variation of M2.
Source: People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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