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China: Moderation in investment continues at the outset of the year

March 11, 2015

In the first two months of the year, urban fixed-asset investment excluding rural households (FAI) expanded 13.9% over the same period last year, which was well below the 15.7% increase recorded in 2014. The reading represented the weakest expansion in investment since 2001 and undershot the 15.0% increase that market analysts had expected. The deceleration mainly resulted from weaker growth in the secondary and the tertiary sectors. Investment in the primary sector, however, accelerated in the same period. In addition, the closely-watched real estate development indicator registered moderate again in the January-February period, reaching the lowest annual growth since July 2009.

A month-on-month comparison shows that investment in urban fixed assets rose a seasonally-adjusted 1.03% in February, which was broadly unchanged from the 1.05% increase tallied in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect fixed-asset investment to grow 15.8% in 2015, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. In 2016, the panel sees fixed-asset investment growth slowing to 15.7%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Investment February 2015

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted urban fixed-asset investment index and annual growth rate (year-to-date) in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).


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