China Investment

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China: Investment growth stabilizes in June

July 15, 2015

In the first half of the year, urban fixed-asset investment excluding rural households (FAI) expanded 11.4% over the same period last year, which matched the result tallied in the January-May period. The print put an end to the decline in investment that started in July 2014 and overshot the 11.2% increase that market analysts had expected. The reading mainly reflected stronger dynamics in the tertiary sector, while activity in the primary sector was stable. Conversely, growth in the secondary sector slowed in the same period. In addition, the closely-watched real estate development indicator moderated again in the January-June period, reaching the lowest annual growth since the trough of the financial crisis in 2009.

A month-on-month comparison shows that investment in urban fixed assets rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.88% in June, which was broadly unchanged from the 0.84% increase tallied in May.

The government set a growth target of 15.0% for urban fixed-asset investment for this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect fixed-asset investment to grow 14.5% in 2015, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. In 2016, the panel sees fixed-asset investment growth slowing to 13.4%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Investment June 2015

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted urban fixed-asset investment index and annual growth rate (year-to-date) in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).


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