China Investment September 2017

China

China: Investment growth falls to multi-decade low in September

October 18, 2017

In the first nine months of the year, urban fixed-asset investment excluding rural households expanded 7.5% annually, below the 7.8% rise in the January–August period and the lowest reading since 1999. The print undershot the 7.7% increase expected by market analysts. It reflected an across-the-board slowdown in the growth of the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy. Investment growth in the closely watched real estate development sector, however, accelerated slightly in September.

Analyzing January–September’s data from the ownership side, investment growth among state-owned and state-holding units, although strong, decelerated to the lowest level since May 2015. Activity among private companies also slowed in the same period.

A month-on-month comparison shows that investment in urban fixed assets rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.56% in September, slightly above the 0.54% increase in August.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect fixed-asset investment to grow 7.9% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s Consensus. In 2018, the panel sees fixed-asset investment growth at 7.4%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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China Investment September 2017

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted urban fixed-asset investment index and annual growth rate (year-to-date) in %.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).


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