China Investment November 2017


China: Investment growth continues to moderate in October

November 14, 2017

In the first ten months of the year, urban fixed-asset investment excluding rural households expanded 7.3% annually, below the 7.5% rise in the January–September period and the lowest reading since 1999. The print matched the result expected by market analysts. It reflected a sizeable slowdown in the tertiary sector, while the primary and secondary sectors of the economy expanded at faster rates. Investment growth in the closely watched real estate development sector decelerated slightly in October.

Analyzing January–October’s data from the ownership side, investment growth among state-owned and state-holding units, although resilient, moderated to the lowest level since May 2015. Activity among private companies also cooled in the same period.

A month-on-month comparison shows that investment in urban fixed assets rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.52% in October, slightly below the 0.55% increase in September.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect fixed-asset investment to grow 7.8% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. In 2019, the panel sees fixed-asset investment growth at 7.4%.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Investment Chart

China Investment October 2017

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted urban fixed-asset investment index and annual growth rate (year-to-date) in %.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).

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