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China: Investment growth continues to moderate in March

April 15, 2015

In the first three months of the year, urban fixed-asset investment excluding rural households (FAI) expanded 13.5% over the same period last year, which was below the 13.9% increase recorded in the January-February period. The reading represented the weakest expansion in investment since 2000 and undershot the 13.9% increase that market analysts had expected. The deceleration mainly resulted from weaker growth in the primary and the secondary sectors. Moreover, investment in the tertiary sector decelerated marginally in the same month. In addition, the closely-watched real estate development indicator moderated again in the January-March period, reaching the lowest annual growth since June 2009.

A month-on-month comparison shows that investment in urban fixed assets rose a seasonally-adjusted 1.04% in March, which was broadly unchanged from the 1.03% increase tallied in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect fixed-asset investment to grow 15.2% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. In 2016, the panel sees fixed-asset investment growth slowing to 14.4%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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China Investment March 2015

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted urban fixed-asset investment index and annual growth rate (year-to-date) in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).


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