China Investment

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China: Investment continues to slow in September

October 19, 2015

In the first nine months of the year, urban fixed-asset investment (FAI) excluding rural households expanded 10.3% over the same period last year, which was below the 10.9% increase tallied in the January–August period. The print represented the softest increase since 2000 and undershot the 10.8% expansion that market analysts had expected. The reading reflected weaker dynamics in all the main categories, particularly in the secondary and the tertiary sectors. In addition, the closely-watched real estate development indicator slowed again in the January–September period, falling to the lowest annual growth since the trough of the financial crisis in 2009.

A month-on-month comparison shows that investment in urban fixed assets rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.68% in September, which was broadly unchanged from the 0.72% increase tallied in August.

The government set a growth target of 15.0% for urban fixed-asset investment for this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect fixed-asset investment to grow 11.6% in 2015, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. In 2016, the panel sees fixed-asset investment growth slowing to 11.4%, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Investment September 2015 0

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted urban fixed-asset investment index and annual growth rate (year-to-date) in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).


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