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China: Downward trend in investment growth continues in April

May 13, 2015

In the first four months of the year, urban fixed-asset investment excluding rural households (FAI) expanded 12.0% over the same period last year, which was below the 13.5% increase recorded in the January-March period. The reading represented the weakest expansion in investment since 2000 and undershot the 13.5% increase that market analysts had expected. The deceleration mainly resulted from weaker growth in all the main sectors. In addition, the closely-watched real estate development indicator moderated again in the January-April period, reaching the lowest annual growth since May 2009.

A month-on-month comparison shows that investment in urban fixed assets rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.89% in April, which was down from the 1.00% increase tallied in March and marked an 18-month low.

The government set a growth target of 15.0% for urban fixed-asset investment for this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect fixed-asset investment to grow 14.9% in 2015, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. In 2016, the panel sees fixed-asset investment growth slowing to 14.2%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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China Investment April 2015

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted urban fixed-asset investment index and annual growth rate (year-to-date) in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).


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