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China: Downward spiral in investment continues in November

December 12, 2014

In the January–November period, urban fixed-asset investment excluding rural households (FAI) rose 15.8% over the same period last year, which was just below the 15.9% increase recorded in the first 10 months of the year. The reading represented the weakest expansion in investment since December 2001 and matched the result that market analysts had expected. The deceleration mainly resulted from weaker growth in the secondary and the tertiary sectors. Investment in the primary sector accelerated to an 11-month high. In addition, the closely-watched real estate development indicator slowed further, reaching the lowest result since July 2009.

A month-on-month comparison shows that investment in urban fixed assets jumped a seasonally-adjusted 1.02% in November, which was well below the 1.66% increase tallied in October.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect fixed-asset investment to grow 15.8% in 2015, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. In 2016, the panel sees fixed-asset investment growth slowing to 15.7%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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China Investment November 2014 0

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted urban fixed-asset investment index and annual growth rate (year-to-date) in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).


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