China Inflation

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China: Inflation in November rebounds from October's five-month low

December 9, 2015

In November, consumer prices were flat over the previous month, which followed the 0.3% decrease tallied in October. The monthly reading mainly reflected that lower prices for recreation, education and cultural services as well as for transportation and communications were offset by higher costs for clothing and healthcare.

Inflation rose from October’s five-month low of 1.3% to 1.5% in November. The print overshot the 1.4% that market analysts had expected. As a result, the trend stabilized in November, with annual average inflation remaining at the previous month’s 1.4%. This marked, nevertheless, an over-five-year low.

Meanwhile, the producer price index fell 5.9% in November over the same month last year, which mirrored October’s decline. The print was a notch above the 6.0% drop that market analysts had expected. The annual average variation of the producer price index decreased from minus 4.7% in October to minus 5.0% in November, which represented the lowest value since December 2009.

The government set an inflation target of 3.0% for 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect that inflation will average 1.5% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel sees inflation edging up to 1.9%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. Meanwhile, the panel expects producer prices to decline 4.4% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2016, panelists see producer prices falling 2.4%, which is down 0.3 percentage points over the previous month’s Consensus.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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China Inflation Chart


China Inflation November 2015

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).


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