China Inflation September 2016


China: Inflation hits six-month high in October

November 9, 2016

In October, consumer prices fell 0.1% from the previous month, contrasting September’s 0.7% increase. The reading mainly reflected a sharp fall in prices for food, particularly fresh vegetables, tobacco and liquors.

Inflation rose from September’s 1.9% to 2.1% in October, which marked a six-month high. The print was in line with what market analysts had expected. Annual average growth in consumer prices inched up from September’s 1.8% to 1.9%. Nevertheless, inflation is well below the government’s 3.0% target for the year.

Meanwhile, the producer price index grew for the second time in nearly six years in October, expanding 1.2% annually. The print overshot both September’s 0.1% increase and the 0.9% expansion that the markets had expected. The annual average variation of the producer price index rose from September’s minus 3.6% to minus 3.0% in October, which represented the highest reading since May 2016.

The government set an inflation target of 3.0% for 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect that inflation will average 2.0% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2017, the panel sees inflation stable at 2.0%, which is also unchanged from last month’s forecast. Meanwhile, the panel expects producer prices to decline 2.1% in 2016, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2017, panelists see producer prices rising 0.1%, which is up 0.9 percentage points from last month’s estimate.

Author:, Economist

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China Inflation Chart

China Inflation October 2016

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).

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