China Inflation


China: Inflation hits nine-month high in July

August 9, 2015

In July, consumer prices rose 0.3% over the previous month, which was up from the flat reading tallied in June. The monthly reading mainly reflected that a sharp increase in prices for food as well as for recreation, education and culture articles more than offset a fall in prices for clothing.

Inflation rose from 1.4% in June to 1.6% in July. The print slightly overshot the 1.5% that market analysts had expected and represented the highest reading since October 2014. As a result of the increase, the trend stabilized in July, with annual average inflation remaining at the previous month’s 1.5%.

Meanwhile, the producer price index fell 5.4% in July over the same month last year (June: -4.8 year-on-year). The print exceeded the 5.0% decline that market analysts had expected and represented the sharpest drop since October 2009. The annual average variation of the producer price index decreased from minus 3.3% in June to minus 3.7% in July, which represented the lowest value since February 2010.

The government set an inflation target of 3.0% for 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect that inflation will average 1.5% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel sees inflation edging up to 2.0%. Meanwhile, the panel expects producer prices to decline 3.6% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. In 2016, panelists see producer prices falling 0.9%.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Inflation Chart

China Inflation July 2015

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).

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