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China: Industrial production picks up in September

October 21, 2014

In September, industrial production expanded 8.0% over the same month last year, which was above the 6.9% increase recorded in the previous month. August’s print had marked the weakest gain since February 2009. The increase tallied in September overshot the 7.5% expansion that market analysts had expected and mainly reflected faster growth in manufacturing. Electricity, gas and water supply rebounded, while mining slowed to a six-month low.

On a monthly basis, industrial production expanded 0.91% in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was up from the 0.22% increase tallied in August. Despite the strong acceleration observed in September, the trend continues to point downward; annual average growth in industrial production ticked down from the previous month’s 9.1% to 8.9%, which marks the lowest print that has been recorded since September 2009.

For 2014, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to grow 8.8%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2015, the panel sees industrial production growth declining to 8.6%, which is also down 0.1 percentage points over the previous month’s estimate.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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China Industry September 2014

Note: Year-on-year variation of industrial production index and annual average growth rate in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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