China Industry March 2016

China

China: Industrial production gains momentum in March

April 15, 2016

In March, industrial production expanded 6.8% over the same month of last year, which marked a nine-month high. The print came in well above the 5.4% rise tallied in the January-February period and overshot the 5.9% expansion that market analysts had expected. Authorities usually report the January and February data together in order to smooth out distortions related to the Chinese New Year holidays. While the print reflected faster expansions in all the main sub-components of the index, growth in electricity, gas and water supply hit an over two-year high.

On a monthly basis, industrial production in March expanded 0.64% in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was up from the 0.40% increase tallied in February. As a result of March’s strong growth, the trend now is pointing upward; annual average growth in industrial production ticked up from February’s multi-year low of 5.9% to 6.0%.

Analysts surveyed this month by FocusEconomics expect manufacturing to decelerate further this year. For 2016, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to grow 5.8%, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. In 2017, the panel sees industrial production growth falling to 5.4%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Industry March 2016

Note: Year-on-year variation of industrial production index and annual average growth rate in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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