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China: Industrial production decelerates in September

October 18, 2013

Industrial production rose 10.2% in September over the same month last year, matching market expectations. The print marks a slowdown compared to August's 10.4% increase, which had represented the strongest expansion since March 2012. The moderation was driven by weaker growth in the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water as well as in mining, whereas manufacturing output accelerated.

On a monthly basis, industrial production expanded 0.72% in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was down from the 0.92% rise tallied in August. The trend, however, continues to improve, with annual average growth in industrial production increasing from 9.6% in August to 9.7% in September.

For 2013, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to grow 9.6%, which is unchanged from last month's projection. In 2014, the panel sees industrial production growth inching down to 9.5%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate.


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China Industry September 2013

Note: Year-on-year variation of industrial production index and annual average growth rate in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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