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China: Industrial production decelerates further in November

December 12, 2014

In November, industrial production expanded 7.2% over the same month last year, which was below the 7.7% increase recorded in the previous month. The increase tallied in November undershot the 7.5% expansion that market analysts had expected and mainly reflected a weaker expansion in manufacturing and mining. Conversely, growth in electricity, gas and water supply accelerated in November to a five -month high.

On a monthly basis, industrial production expanded 0.52% in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was slightly up from the 0.50% increase tallied in October. As a result of the weak growth observed in November, the trend continues to point downward; annual average growth in industrial production ticked down from the previous month’s 8.7% to 8.4%, which marks the lowest print that has been recorded since September 2009.

For 2015, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to grow 8.2%, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2016, the panel sees industrial production growth declining to 7.9%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Industry November 2014

Note: Year-on-year variation of industrial production index and annual average growth rate in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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