China GDP

China

China: Growth slows to six-year low in Q1

April 15, 2015

GDP in Q1 grew 7.0% over the same period last year. The print came in below the 7.3% increase tallied in Q4 and was in line with the result that FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists had expected. Q1’s print represented the slowest pace of growth since Q1 2009.

Although the National Bureau of Statistics does not provide a breakdown of GDP by expenditure, additional data suggest that growth in domestic demand was the main driver behind Q1’s moderation, as both private consumption and investment decelerated at the outset of the year. Growth in nominal retail sales decelerated slightly from 11.7% in Q4 to 10.5% in Q1. In addition, urban fixed-asset investment, which includes capital and construction investment, expanded an accumulated 13.5% in nominal terms in the first quarter, which was down from the accumulated 15.7% increase recorded in the full year 2014.

On the external side of the economy, nominal merchandise exports decelerated to a 4.6% expansion in Q1 (Q4: +8.6% year-on-year), while imports contracted 17.6% annually in the same period (Q4: -1.7% yoy). Although the still robust trade balance surplus signals that the external sector could have contributed positively to overall growth in Q1, the sharp downturn in imports highlights that domestic demand remains weak.

On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded a seasonally-adjusted 1.3% in Q1 (Q4: +1.5% quarter-on-quarter), which marked the softest increase since records for sequential data began in Q4 2010.

Economic activity moderated in Q1, which is consistent with Chinese authorities’ willingness to tolerate slower growth under the “new normal” approach.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists’ projection is in line with the Chinese government’s 2015 growth target and expect GDP to expand 7.0% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel foresees slightly lower economic growth of 6.8%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

Sample Report

Looking for forecasts related to GDP in China? Download a sample report now.

Download

China GDP Chart


China GDP Q1 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


China Economic News

  • China: Credit and money data paint mixed picture in November

    December 11, 2018

    In November, Chinese banks distributed CNY 1.25 trillion (USD 182 billion) in new yuan loans, well above the CNY 697 billion distributed in October and market expectations of CNY 1.10 trillion.

    Read more

  • China: Inflation slows in November

    December 10, 2018

    Consumer prices fell 0.3% from the previous month in November, contrasting October’s 0.2% increase and marking the lowest print in eight months.

    Read more

  • China: Manufacturing sector slows to a standstill in November, PMI inches down to over two-year low

    November 30, 2018

    The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) edged down to an over two-year low of 50.0% in November from 50.2% in October, undershooting market expectations of a stable 50.2% reading.

    Read more

  • China: Growth in house prices inches up in October

    November 15, 2018

    House prices in 70 large- and medium-sized cities rose 1.0% in October in month-on-month terms according to a weighted average index calculated by Thomson Reuters from data issued by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

    Read more

  • China: Industrial production growth inches up in October

    November 14, 2018

    Industrial production expanded 5.9% year-on-year in October, up from a 5.8% rise in September and overshooting market expectations of 5.8%. October’s print mainly reflected faster growth in the mining and manufacturing sectors, while the dynamics in the production and distribution of electricity, heating power, gas and water softened compared to September. On a month-on-month basis, industrial production increased 0.48% in seasonally-adjusted terms in October, unchanged from September’s expansion.

    Read more

More news

Search form