China GDP


China: GDP accelerates in Q3

October 18, 2013

In the third quarter, GDP grew 7.8% over the same period last year, which was above the 7.5% rise observed in the second quarter. The increase was in line with market expectations and marks the highest reading in three quarters.

Although the National Bureau of Statistics does not provide a breakdown of GDP by expenditure, additional data suggest that both private consumption and investment gained some momentum in the third quarter. Nominal retail sales expanded 13.3% in the third quarter, which is above the 13.0% rise observed in the second quarter. Urban fixed-asset investment growth, which includes capital and construction investment, expanded an accumulated 20.2% in nominal terms in the first nine months of the year, up from the accumulated 20.1% rise seen in the first half of 2013. Export growth was steady at 3.9% in the third quarter, while imports accelerated to an 8.4% rise (Q2: +5.0% year-on-year).

GDP expanded 7.7% in the first three quarters of the year over the same period last year. According to National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Laiyun, total consumption contributed by 3.5 percentage points to GDP growth in the first three quarters of the year, while gross capital formation added 4.3 percentage points. Net exports shaved off 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth.

A quarter-on-quarter analysis corroborates the acceleration suggested by the annual figures, as GDP rose a seasonally adjusted 2.2% in the third quarter, above the 1.9% expansion recorded in the second quarter.

The government has set an economic growth target of 7.5% for this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists are broadly in line with the government and expect GDP to expand 7.6% in 2013, which is unchanged from last month's estimate. In 2014, the panel sees economic growth inching down to 7.5%, which is also unchanged from last month's projection.


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China GDP Chart

China GDP Q3 2013

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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