Bulgaria: GDP expands at fastest pace in over two years in Q4
March 6, 2014
In the last quarter of 2013, GDP expanded 1.2% over the same period of the previous year according to detailed data released on 5 March. The expansion overshot the1.0% expansion recorded in Q3. In addition, the reading marked the fastest expansion since Q3 2011. On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 0.3% in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was below the 0.5% expansion recorded in the third quarter. In the full year 2013, GDP rose 0.9%, which was above the 0.6% increase observed in 2012. Q4's expansion was driven by stronger fixed investment which rebounded from a 0.4% fall in Q3 to a 2.5% increase in Q4. Private consumption fell 1.5% over the same quarter of the previous year, which marked an improvement over the 1.8% fall recorded in Q3. Conversely, government consumption decelerated from a 3.6% increase in Q3 to a 1.3% rise in Q4. On the external side of the economy, exports rose 9.6% (Q3: +10.7% year-on-year). In addition, imports rose 6.9% (Q3: +7.4% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to the economy fell from 1.6 percentage points in Q3 to 1.4 percentage points in Q4. The government sees economic growth at 1.8% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect GDP to expand 1.6% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month's Consensus. In 2015, panelists see the economy growing 2.6%.
Author: Dirina Mançellari, Senior Economist